Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fayha haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Al-Ittihad FC, 1.10 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 59% versus Al-Fayha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al-Fayha 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG and Al-Fayha 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.960 / defence 1.023 | Al-Fayha attack 0.912 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.400. Data: 34 Al-Ittihad FC games / 34 Al-Fayha games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fayha 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al-Fayha 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 / Al-Fayha 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.960 / def 1.023 | Al-Fayha attack 0.912 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Fayha xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 43% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 6W | Draws 3 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (0.96) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.91x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
43%
2.32
25%
4.02
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.31
Al-Fayha xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
7%
14.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.31 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 16W 7D 11L from 34 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 16L across 34 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. Al-Fayha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 10W 1D 6L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 4W 2D 11L across 17 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.21 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Pre-Season
Al-Fayha
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 16W 7D 11L in their last 34 games (1.62 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 41%, Al-Fayha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 65% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Fayha in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 53% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 65% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.