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Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fayha 3-0 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.38 xG and Al-Fayha 1.04 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.90 against Al-Fayha attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Draw 18% | Al-Fayha 15%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 66%, Al-Fayha 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights