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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al-Fateh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fateh 4-2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.74 xG and Al-Fateh 1.31 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.88 against Al-Fateh attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 29%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 66%, Al-Fateh 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights