Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 7W 1D 2L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium this season.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 2.20 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Ittihad FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while Al-Fateh have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 4–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 5.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 61% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 66% | Al-Fateh 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 xG and Al-Fateh 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.573 / defence 0.909 | Al-Fateh attack 0.791 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.248. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.573 — their λ of 2.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Al-Ittihad FC games / 44 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 77% | Draw 14% | Al-Fateh 9%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.30 | Draw 7.14 | Al-Fateh 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 77% | Draw 14% | Al-Fateh 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 / Al-Fateh 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.573 / def 0.909 | Al-Fateh attack 0.791 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (77%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.79
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al-Fateh xG
56%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 77% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.57x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.79. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
77%
1.31
14%
7.14
9%
10.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.79
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.68
0.90
Al-Fateh xG
1.31
77%
Home win
7.14
14%
Draw
10.67
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
6%
16.22
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
1%
173.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.79 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.90 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 44 games, going 25W 6D 13L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.14 PPG from 44 outings (13W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 13W 2D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (6W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.48 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 75%.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 25W 6D 13L in their last 44 games (1.84 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 13W 11D 20L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Fateh 2-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad FC at 76%, Al-Fateh at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Al-Ittihad FC and 76% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 81% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 76% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fateh 2-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 xG and Al-Fateh 0.90 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.57 / defence 0.91 against Al-Fateh attack 0.79 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 77% | Draw 14% | Al-Fateh 9%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 66%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.