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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Ettifaq 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ettifaq 3-2 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.76 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.40 / defence 0.87 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.12 / defence 0.88, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 28%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 64%, Al-Ettifaq 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights