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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al-Ittihad FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.05 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.23 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.84 / defence 0.70, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 39%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 61%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 2.29 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights