🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Damac 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Damac 1-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.66 xG and Damac 0.73 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Hilal Saudi FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.49 / defence 0.71 against Damac attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 78% | Draw 14% | Damac 8%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%, Damac 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Damac's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights