Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-2 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Damac (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Damac's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.80 PPG return is 2.10 points per game ahead of Damac's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Damac in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Damac — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% versus Damac 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Damac 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.87 xG and Damac 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.319 / defence 0.914 | Damac attack 0.933 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.231. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 35 Damac games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% | Draw 22% | Damac 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Damac 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% | Draw 22% | Damac 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.87 / Damac 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.319 / def 0.914 | Damac attack 0.933 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Damac xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 2 Damac.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 56% chance of winning, Damac a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W | Draws 2 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Damac (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.32x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.93x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
56%
1.77
22%
4.44
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.92
1.05
Damac xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
3%
30.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.05 for Damac, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.83 PPG on a 32W 3D 0L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Damac's form line: 10W 11D 14L from 35 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.88 PPG from 17 outings (16W 1D 0L).
On the road, Damac have gone 4W 5D 8L from 17 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.97 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.26 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 32W 3D 0L in their last 35 games (2.83 PPG), while Damac have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Damac away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.88 PPG; Damac away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Damac in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Damac have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Damac see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%, Damac 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 47% (Damac). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Damac in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 59% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 47% of Damac's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Damac in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Damac 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Damac 3-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.87 xG and Damac 1.05 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Damac outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.91 against Damac attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% | Draw 22% | Damac 21%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69%, Damac 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.83 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.