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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab finished level at 2-2 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.57 xG and Al Shabab 1.45 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.72 / defence 0.94 against Al Shabab attack 1.16 / defence 1.04, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% | Draw 19% | Al Shabab 20%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%, Al Shabab 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Shabab's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights