🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Riyadh 2-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.05 xG and Al Riyadh 1.21 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Riyadh landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.91 against Al Riyadh attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% | Draw 21% | Al Riyadh 22%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%, Al Riyadh 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights