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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.82 xG and Al Riyadh 0.93 xG, a combined 4.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.91 / defence 0.75 against Al Riyadh attack 0.91 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 87% | Draw 8% | Al Riyadh 5%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 87%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 70% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%, Al Riyadh 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights