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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC finished level at 2-2 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.77 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 22%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.23 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights