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Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Qadisiyah FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.57 / defence 0.86 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 18%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 79%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.18 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights