Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Okhdood.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Al Okhdood travel to Kingdom Arena to take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 September 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at Kingdom Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Okhdood — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Al Okhdood have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2025, ended 4–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 65% versus Al Okhdood 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76% | Al Okhdood 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.74 xG and Al Okhdood 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.228 / defence 0.898 | Al Okhdood attack 0.792 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.366. Data: 37 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 37 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Draw 24% | Al Okhdood 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Al Okhdood 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Okhdood 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Draw 24% | Al Okhdood 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.74 / Al Okhdood 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.228 / def 0.898 | Al Okhdood attack 0.792 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al Okhdood xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 25 September 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 55% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.23
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.71
0.97
Al Okhdood xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
4%
26.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.97 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 24W 8D 5L from 37 games, a 2.16 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Okhdood, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 21L across 37 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.24 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Okhdood heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 13W 3D 2L from 18 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Okhdood's away record stands at 6W 3D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 1.00 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al Okhdood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 24W 8D 5L in their last 37 games (2.16 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 9W 7D 21L in their last 37 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%, Al Okhdood 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 33% (Al Okhdood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 39% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 33% of Al Okhdood's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Okhdood 3-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.74 xG and Al Okhdood 0.97 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.90 against Al Okhdood attack 0.79 / defence 0.94, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Draw 24% | Al Okhdood 21%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%, Al Okhdood 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.