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Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Hilal Saudi FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-3 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.42 xG and Al-Nassr 1.53 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.78 / defence 0.94 against Al-Nassr attack 1.24 / defence 0.91, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% | Draw 19% | Al-Nassr 24%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Al-Nassr win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%, Al-Nassr 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.59 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights