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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Najma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Najma 4-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.51 xG and Al Najma 0.55 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.68 against Al Najma attack 0.57 / defence 1.33, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80% | Draw 15% | Al Najma 6%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 80%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%, Al Najma 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Najma's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Al Najma (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights