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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 3-2 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.97 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.43 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.84 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.14 / defence 1.14, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 26%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%, Al Khaleej Saihat 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights