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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 1-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.01 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.14 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.66 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.23 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 21%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%, Al-Ittihad FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights