Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al-Hazm to Kingdom Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Kingdom Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Hilal Saudi FC: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Hazm, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% versus Al-Hazm 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Hazm 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.93 xG and Al-Hazm 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.333 / defence 0.949 | Al-Hazm attack 0.927 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.272. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.333 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 40 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hazm 5.26. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% | Al-Hazm 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Monday 19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.93 / Al-Hazm 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.333 / def 0.949 | Al-Hazm attack 0.927 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al-Hazm xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 19 October 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 54% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.33) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.73
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.12
Al-Hazm xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
3%
35.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.12 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.48 PPG on a 30W 9D 1L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm's form line: 13W 11D 16L from 40 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.45 PPG from 20 outings (15W 4D 1L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 4W 8D 8L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.55 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.10 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 30W 9D 1L in their last 40 games (2.48 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.45 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45%, Al-Hazm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 55% (Al-Hazm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 60% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 55% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.