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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Hazm.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al-Hazm to Kingdom Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 8 January 2026 at 14:55 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Kingdom Arena this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 1L across 7 road games this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.71 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Hilal Saudi FC: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Hazm, with 1 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 4–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% versus Al-Hazm 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% | Al-Hazm 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.68 xG and Al-Hazm 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.231 / defence 0.927 | Al-Hazm attack 0.834 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.463. Data: 46 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 12 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hazm 4.00. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Hazm 71% BTTS from recent games.

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