Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al-Hazm to Kingdom Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 8 January 2026 at 14:55 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Kingdom Arena this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 1L across 7 road games this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.71 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Hilal Saudi FC: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Hazm, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 4–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% versus Al-Hazm 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% | Al-Hazm 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.68 xG and Al-Hazm 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.231 / defence 0.927 | Al-Hazm attack 0.834 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.463. Data: 46 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 12 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hazm 4.00. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Hazm 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Jan 2026, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.68 / Al-Hazm 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.231 / def 0.927 | Al-Hazm attack 0.834 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al-Hazm xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 14:55 on Thursday 8 January 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 50% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.23) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.10
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.13
Al-Hazm xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
5%
21.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.13 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.67 PPG on a 10W 2D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 3W 4D 5L from 12 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.67 PPG from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.08 PPG overall record — Al-Hazm travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.92 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 10W 2D 0L in their last 12 games (2.67 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.67 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 67%, Al-Hazm at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 67% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 67% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 67% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Hazm 3-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.68 xG and Al-Hazm 1.13 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hazm landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.93 against Al-Hazm attack 0.83 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 25%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67%, Al-Hazm 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.