🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Fayha.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha meet at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 22 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Kingdom Arena this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.

Al-Fayha have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 2.40 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favour (3.00 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with Al-Fayha managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.

The historical record gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.

Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% versus Al-Fayha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76% | Al-Fayha 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 xG and Al-Fayha 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.348 / defence 0.774 | Al-Fayha attack 0.755 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.488. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 2.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 49 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Draw 16% | Al-Fayha 10%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Fayha 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Fayha 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights