🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Fateh 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fateh 2-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.43 xG and Al-Fateh 1.08 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.82 against Al-Fateh attack 0.86 / defence 1.30, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66% | Draw 20% | Al-Fateh 14%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%, Al-Fateh 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.95 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights