Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Kingdom Arena to take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at Kingdom Arena: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 2.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 8 past contests while Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.88 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.359 / defence 0.937 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.964 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.424. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 37 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.17. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.88 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.359 / def 0.937 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.964 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W | Draws 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.36) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.82
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.16
1.29
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
4%
26.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.29 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 37 games, going 28W 9D 0L for 2.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 2.35 PPG from 37 outings (27W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.51 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 14W 4D 0L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 2.11 points per game from 18 outings (12W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.62 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.08 scored and 0.76 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's scoring rate against Al-Ahli Jeddah's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 28W 9D 0L in their last 37 games (2.51 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 27W 6D 4L in their last 37 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.56 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 9 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 39% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 39% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 39% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.88 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.29 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.94 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 24%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.51 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.