Al-Hazm 1-1 NEOM – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates NEOM at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs NEOM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Hazm Club Stadium plays host to Al-Hazm versus NEOM in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hazm have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm at Al Hazm Club Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al Hazm Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
NEOM's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. NEOM have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, NEOM have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. NEOM are 0.70 PPG clear of Al-Hazm in recent Pro League fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Hazm lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
NEOM half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 58% versus NEOM 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 56% | NEOM 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.94 xG and NEOM 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.868 / defence 0.865 | NEOM attack 0.974 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.393. NEOM's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Al-Hazm games / 41 NEOM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 25% | Draw 37% | NEOM 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 4.00 | Draw 2.70 | NEOM 2.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 50% | NEOM 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs NEOM | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Al Hazm Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 25% | Draw 37% | NEOM 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Hazm 0.94 / NEOM 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.868 / def 0.865 | NEOM attack 0.974 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.17
NEOM xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs NEOM kick off?
Al-Hazm vs NEOM kicked off at 13:50 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Al Hazm Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
Al-Hazm 1 - 1 NEOM.
Where is Al-Hazm vs NEOM being played?
The match is being played at Al Hazm Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs NEOM part of?
Al-Hazm vs NEOM is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 25% chance of winning, NEOM a 37% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Hazm and NEOM will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs NEOM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and NEOM?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | NEOM 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and NEOM in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. NEOM (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against NEOM's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — NEOM's attack (0.97x) against Al-Hazm's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEOM Win
25%
3.96
37%
2.68
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.11
1.17
NEOM xG
3.96
25%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and NEOM expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.17 for NEOM, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs NEOM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hazm come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 11D 17L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NEOM sit at 1.46 PPG from 41 outings (17W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for NEOM, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Al-Hazm against 1.46 for NEOM. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Hazm's home form reads 9W 3D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, NEOM have taken 1.45 points per game from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; NEOM are on 1.37 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
NEOM
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and NEOM in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while NEOM have gone 17W 9D 15L in their last 41 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or NEOM away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.50 PPG; NEOM away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against NEOM — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
1
NEOM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and NEOM?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, NEOM have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and NEOM last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Al-Hazm 1-1 NEOM.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and NEOM?
NEOM have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 55%, NEOM 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Hazm) and 40% (NEOM).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 30% of games; NEOM in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / NEOM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play NEOM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Hazm's games and 55% of NEOM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs NEOM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 40% of NEOM's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and NEOM tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, NEOM in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm and NEOM share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm and NEOM finished level at 1-1 at Al Hazm Club Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.94 xG and NEOM 1.17 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against NEOM attack 0.97 / defence 0.79, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 25% | Draw 37% | NEOM 37%, with NEOM to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 56%, NEOM 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
NEOM's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.22 PPG, NEOM 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.