🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Al-Hazm defy the odds to beat Damac 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hazm beat Damac 2-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.36 xG and Damac 1.76 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.80 / defence 1.56 against Damac attack 0.77 / defence 1.11, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 26% | Damac 46%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Hazm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 62%, Damac 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Damac's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.06 PPG, Damac 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hazm win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights