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Poisson rates Damac at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Damac encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Damac travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 January 2026, 15:20 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 1W 1D 5L from 7 Pro League appearances (0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.57 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season.

Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Al-Hazm) versus 0.90 (Damac). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Damac, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Al-Hazm.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Damac have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Damac in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 62% and Damac 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 62% | Damac 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.36 xG and Damac 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.802 / defence 1.565 | Damac attack 0.765 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.470. Data: 16 Al-Hazm games / 50 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 26% | Damac 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Damac 2.17. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 57% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.

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