Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hazm at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Al-Hazm welcome Al Shabab to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 August 2026 at 16:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Al-Hazm carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al Shabab have the better historical record — 6 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Al-Hazm.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2026, ended 0–4 with Al Shabab winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Shabab have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Shabab trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 60% and Al Shabab 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 60% | Al Shabab 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.07 xG and Al Shabab 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.908 / defence 0.952 | Al Shabab attack 0.737 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.428. Data: 37 Al-Hazm games / 37 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 35% | Draw 34% | Al Shabab 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Al Shabab 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Al Shabab lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Hazm carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 50% | Al Shabab 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 35% | Draw 34% | Al Shabab 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Hazm 1.07 / Al Shabab 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.908 / def 0.952 | Al Shabab attack 0.737 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al Shabab xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Al-Hazm 1 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 35% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 6W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.91) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
35%
2.89
34%
2.91
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.07
1.00
Al Shabab xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.00 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 12W 9D 16L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab's form line: 8W 13D 16L from 37 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 1.22 PPG, Al Shabab on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (8W 2D 8L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 2W 8D 8L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 8W 13D 16L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.44 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jan 2026, when Al Shabab won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Shabab have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 56%, Al Shabab 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al-Hazm) and 28% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Shabab in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 44% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 28% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Al-Hazm and Al Shabab drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.07 xG and Al Shabab 1.00 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Al Shabab attack 0.74 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 35% | Draw 34% | Al Shabab 31%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 60%, Al Shabab 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.22 PPG, Al Shabab 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.