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Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Hazm.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Hazm 0-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.64 xG and Al-Nassr 2.20 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.59 / defence 1.05 against Al-Nassr attack 1.43 / defence 0.71, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 9% | Draw 18% | Al-Nassr 73%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 20%, Al-Nassr 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hazm shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr managed 2 against a 3.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights