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Dominant Al Khaleej Saihat run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al-Hazm.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Hazm 1-4 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.83 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.57 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat outscored their 1.57 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.55 / defence 1.04 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 54%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 29%, Al Khaleej Saihat 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Khaleej Saihat arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights