Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Thursday 18 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ittihad FC have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Al-Hazm.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 58% versus Al-Ittihad FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 56% | Al-Ittihad FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.95 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.868 / defence 0.845 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.050 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.337. Data: 41 Al-Hazm games / 41 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 25% | Draw 37% | Al-Ittihad FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 4.00 | Draw 2.70 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 25% | Draw 37% | Al-Ittihad FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Hazm 0.95 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.868 / def 0.845 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.050 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al-Ittihad FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 18 February 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 37% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
25%
3.92
37%
2.70
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.14
1.19
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.92
25%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
8%
12.86
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.0 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.19 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 13W 11D 17L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 21W 9D 11L from 41 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 7D 5L from 20 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.63 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 21W 9D 11L in their last 41 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 55%, Al-Ittihad FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Hazm) and 55% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Hazm's games and 70% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al-Hazm's matches and 55% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.