Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Thursday 18 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ittihad FC have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Al-Hazm.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 60% and Al-Ittihad FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 58% | Al-Ittihad FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.32 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.941 / defence 1.099 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.135 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.476. Data: 46 Al-Hazm games / 45 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.08. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Hazm 1.32 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.941 / def 1.099 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.135 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Al-Ittihad FC xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 18 February 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
26%
3.91
27%
3.73
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.16
1.84
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
4%
24.63
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.84 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 13W 12D 20L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 23W 10D 12L from 45 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 9W 8D 6L from 23 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 23W 10D 12L in their last 45 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.39 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Hazm at 61%, Al-Ittihad FC at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Hazm) and 56% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Hazm's games and 74% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Hazm's matches and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.