Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 October 2026, 13:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Al-Hazm have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 1.20 PPG, Al-Fayha 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al-Fayha 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Al-Hazm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Fayha trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 58% versus Al-Fayha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 55% | Al-Fayha 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.25 xG and Al-Fayha 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.876 / defence 0.864 | Al-Fayha attack 0.836 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.272. Data: 40 Al-Hazm games / 40 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 35% | Al-Fayha 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Fayha 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Fayha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Oct 2026, 13:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 35% | Al-Fayha 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Hazm 1.25 / Al-Fayha 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.876 / def 0.864 | Al-Fayha attack 0.836 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Al-Fayha xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 13:40 on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 41% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hazm 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 2W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.88) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
41%
2.44
35%
2.87
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.17
0.92
Al-Fayha xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
7%
14.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 0.92 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 13W 11D 16L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha's form line: 11W 10D 19L from 40 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 1.25 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 3D 13L from 20 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.20 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 10D 19L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
2
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al-Fayha.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 55%, Al-Fayha 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Al-Hazm and 65% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 30% of games; Al-Fayha in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Hazm's games and 55% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al-Hazm's matches and 65% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.