Al-Hazm 2-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al Hazm Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 October 2026, 13:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Hazm Club Stadium, Al-Hazm have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al Hazm Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 0.90 PPG, Al-Fayha 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al-Fayha 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Al-Hazm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Fayha trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 59% versus Al-Fayha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 54% | Al-Fayha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.28 xG and Al-Fayha 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.910 / defence 1.043 | Al-Fayha attack 0.644 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.403. Data: 44 Al-Hazm games / 44 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 34% | Al-Fayha 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Fayha 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Fayha 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al Hazm Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Oct 2026, 13:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 34% | Al-Fayha 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Hazm 1.28 / Al-Fayha 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.910 / def 1.043 | Al-Fayha attack 0.644 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al-Fayha xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 13:40 on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Al Hazm Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Hazm 2 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Hazm Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 41% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hazm 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 2W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.91) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
41%
2.41
34%
2.94
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.22
0.94
Al-Fayha xG
2.41
41%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
7%
14.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 0.94 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 12D 19L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 11W 12D 21L from 44 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 1.16 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 4D 14L from 22 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.16 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 12D 21L in their last 44 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.41 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
3
Draws
2
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-2 Al-Fayha.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 59%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Hazm) and 59% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 27% of games; Al-Fayha in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Hazm's matches and 59% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Hazm Club Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha drew 2-2 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.28 xG and Al-Fayha 0.94 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Al-Fayha attack 0.64 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 34% | Al-Fayha 25%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 54%, Al-Fayha 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.16 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.