Al-Hazm 2-3 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Al Hazm Club Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Al-Hazm (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's home record at Al Hazm Club Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al Hazm Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hazm's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Hazm lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 60% versus Al-Fateh 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 55% | Al-Fateh 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.39 xG and Al-Fateh 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.860 / defence 0.871 | Al-Fateh attack 0.794 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.375. Data: 42 Al-Hazm games / 42 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 43% | Draw 35% | Al-Fateh 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Fateh 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hazm at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Fateh 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al Hazm Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 43% | Draw 35% | Al-Fateh 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Hazm 1.39 / Al-Fateh 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.860 / def 0.871 | Al-Fateh attack 0.794 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Al-Fateh xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 15:15 on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Al Hazm Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Hazm 2 - 3 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Hazm Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 43% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hazm 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.79x) against Al-Hazm's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
43%
2.31
35%
2.87
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.34
0.95
Al-Fateh xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
5%
18.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 0.95 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 12D 17L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 9W 13D 20L from 42 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Al-Hazm against 0.95 for Al-Fateh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 8D 11L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.07 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 9W 13D 20L in their last 42 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.48 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-3 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 57%, Al-Fateh 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Hazm) and 38% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Hazm's games and 57% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 38% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Hazm 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Hazm 2-3 at Al Hazm Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.39 xG and Al-Fateh 0.95 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fateh outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Al-Fateh attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 43% | Draw 35% | Al-Fateh 22%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 55%, Al-Fateh 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.21 PPG, Al-Fateh 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.