Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Fateh make the trip to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Hazm (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fateh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Fateh in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Hazm lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 59% and Al-Fateh 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 59% | Al-Fateh 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.53 xG and Al-Fateh 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.984 / defence 1.013 | Al-Fateh attack 0.851 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al-Hazm games / 34 Al-Fateh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hazm at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 60% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights