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Stalemate at Al-Hazm's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.64 xG and Al-Fateh 1.76 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Al-Fateh attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 41%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 0%, Al-Fateh 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hazm conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights