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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fayha and NEOM share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha and NEOM finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.19 xG and NEOM 0.99 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against NEOM attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 40% | Draw 31% | NEOM 30%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 59%, NEOM 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

NEOM's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.18 PPG, NEOM 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights