Al-Fayha 1-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 17 January 2026 at 13:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fayha have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 4W 3D 3L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Damac (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Al-Fayha against 0.90 for Damac. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Al-Fayha 1W, Damac 3W, 4D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 40% versus Damac 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 44% | Damac 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.15 xG and Damac 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.671 / defence 1.130 | Damac attack 0.760 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.411. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Al-Fayha games / 48 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 35% | Draw 28% | Damac 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Damac 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 40% | Damac 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 13:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 35% | Draw 28% | Damac 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Fayha 1.15 / Damac 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.671 / def 1.130 | Damac attack 0.760 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Damac (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Damac xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Damac kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Damac kicked off at 13:35 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Al-Fayha 1 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Damac part of?
Al-Fayha vs Damac is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 35% chance of winning, Damac a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Fayha and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Damac?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 4 | Damac 3W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Damac in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Damac (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.67) and Damac's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.76x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
35%
2.90
28%
3.58
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.36
1.21
Damac xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.21 for Damac, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha come into this having played 48 games, going 11W 16D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 0.94 PPG from 48 outings (10W 15D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Al-Fayha against 0.94 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fayha's home form reads 6W 9D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.00 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while Damac have gone 10W 15D 23L in their last 48 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Damac away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.17 PPG; Damac away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Damac won 3-0 on 15 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
4
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Damac have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Damac 3-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 35%, Damac 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Al-Fayha and 44% for Damac.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 48% of games; Damac in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 52% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 44% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Damac in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Damac finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.15 xG and Damac 1.21 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.67 / defence 1.13 against Damac attack 0.76 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 35% | Draw 28% | Damac 38%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 44%, Damac 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.02 PPG, Damac 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.