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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Damac 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Damac 2-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.94 xG and Damac 0.87 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.66 / defence 0.78 against Damac attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 35% | Draw 34% | Damac 31%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 49%, Damac 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Damac's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.17 PPG, Damac 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights