🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al-Fayha 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al-Fayha 1-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.04 xG and Al Taawon 1.13 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.79 / defence 0.76 against Al Taawon attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 33% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 38%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 41%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Al Taawon's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.13 PPG, Al Taawon 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights