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Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Fayha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Shabab beat Al-Fayha 0-2 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.30 xG and Al Shabab 1.28 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.81 / defence 0.75 against Al Shabab attack 1.19 / defence 1.04, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 36%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al Shabab win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 49%, Al Shabab 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Shabab's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.19 PPG, Al Shabab 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Shabab (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights