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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al Riyadh 4-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.74 xG and Al Riyadh 1.07 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Riyadh outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Al Riyadh attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 53% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 23%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 44%, Al Riyadh 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.11 PPG, Al Riyadh 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights