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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Al-Fayha take on Al Okhdood.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fayha host Al Okhdood at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 May 2025 at 17:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Al-Fayha's home record at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fayha at 1.30 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Fayha have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Al Okhdood have managed just 0 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Fayha winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Fayha and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Al-Fayha trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al Okhdood trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 52% versus Al Okhdood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 51% | Al Okhdood 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.86 xG and Al Okhdood 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.732 / defence 0.791 | Al Okhdood attack 0.708 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.457. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Okhdood's defence strength of 0.768 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Al-Fayha games / 65 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 34% | Al Okhdood 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Al Okhdood 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Al Okhdood's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.68 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 40% | Al Okhdood 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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