Al-Fayha 2-2 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 36%, yet in-form Al Kholood provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Al-Fayha welcome Al Kholood to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 3 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 4W 2D 4L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Kholood's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Kholood are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Kholood in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fayha, 2 for Al Kholood and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 53% versus Al Kholood 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 55% | Al Kholood 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.42 xG and Al Kholood 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.997 / defence 1.119 | Al Kholood attack 0.880 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.406. Data: 38 Al-Fayha games / 38 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 29% | Al Kholood 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Al Kholood 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Kholood (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 60% | Al Kholood 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Sep 2026, 15:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 29% | Al Kholood 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Fayha 1.42 / Al Kholood 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.997 / def 1.119 | Al Kholood attack 0.880 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al Kholood xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood kicked off at 15:55 on Thursday 3 September 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Al-Fayha 2 - 2 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 36% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Kholood?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 1 | Al Kholood 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Kholood in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.40
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.81
1.39
Al Kholood xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
8%
12.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.39 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 9D 18L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 1.08 PPG from 38 outings (11W 8D 19L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.11 PPG, Al Kholood on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.24 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al Kholood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 11W 8D 19L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.42 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al Kholood runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2026, when Al Kholood won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Kholood?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Kholood have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-2 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 53%, Al Kholood 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Fayha) and 63% (Al Kholood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 26% of games; Al Kholood in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Kholood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 53% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al-Fayha's matches and 63% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al Kholood share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al Kholood finished level at 2-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.42 xG and Al Kholood 1.39 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Al Kholood attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 29% | Al Kholood 34%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 55%, Al Kholood 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.11 PPG, Al Kholood 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.