Al-Fayha 1-0 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Al-Fayha welcome Al Kholood to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 20 January 2025 at 15:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 4D 4L at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's away record: 3W 2D 3L from 8 road trips in Pro League this season (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 0.80 PPG, Al Kholood 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 47% versus Al Kholood 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 40% | Al Kholood 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.22 xG and Al Kholood 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.754 / defence 1.018 | Al Kholood attack 0.905 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.447. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Al-Fayha games / 15 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Al Kholood 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Kholood at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Kholood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Kholood 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jan 2025, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Fayha 1.22 / Al Kholood 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.754 / def 1.018 | Al Kholood attack 0.905 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al Kholood xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood kicked off at 15:10 on Monday 20 January 2025 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Al-Fayha 1 - 0 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 34% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Kholood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Kholood in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.76
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.56
1.33
Al Kholood xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.33 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 6D 7L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 0.80 PPG, Al Kholood on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 1W 2D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.07 PPG overall record — Al Kholood travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Kholood come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.27 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 2W 6D 7L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Kholood away?
Al Kholood's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 0.71 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al Kholood runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2026, when Al Kholood won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Kholood?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Kholood have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-2 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 43%, Al Kholood 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Al-Fayha) and 43% (Al Kholood).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Al-Fayha's games and 71% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 43% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al Kholood 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Kholood 1-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.22 xG and Al Kholood 1.33 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Kholood landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 1.02 against Al Kholood attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 39%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 40%, Al Kholood 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Kholood's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 0.80 PPG, Al Kholood 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.