Al-Fayha 0-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Thursday 20 February 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fayha have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's home record at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Fayha, 2 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 56% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 52% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.33 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.693 / defence 0.849 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.021 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.360. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Khaleej Saihat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Al-Fayha games / 54 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 40% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 40% | Al Khaleej Saihat 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Feb 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 40% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Fayha 1.33 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.693 / def 0.849 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.021 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 15:30 on Thursday 20 February 2025 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 40% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fayha 2W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.69x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (1.02x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.72
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.51
1.18
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.18 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 15W 18D 21L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 17W 13D 24L from 54 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.19 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (6W 10D 10L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 5D 11L from 26 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.15 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 15W 18D 21L in their last 54 games (1.17 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 13D 24L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.08 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Khaleej Saihat won 0-3 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 3, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 42%, Al Khaleej Saihat 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Al-Fayha) and 46% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 58% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 46% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.33 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.18 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.69 / defence 0.85 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.02 / defence 1.26, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 40% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 52%, Al Khaleej Saihat 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.17 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.