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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.10 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.41 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.81 / defence 0.80 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 29% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 44%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 42%, Al-Ittihad FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights