Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Ittihad FC arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Al-Ittihad FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Ittihad FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 57% versus Al-Ittihad FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 53% | Al-Ittihad FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.84 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.747 / defence 1.058 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.116 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.479. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Al-Fayha games / 47 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 18% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 59%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 5.56 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 18% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Fayha 0.84 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.747 / def 1.058 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.116 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.479 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Al-Ittihad FC xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Fayha 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 18% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 4W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.12x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
18%
5.63
23%
4.28
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.58
1.75
Al-Ittihad FC xG
5.63
18%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
3%
32.26
25%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.2 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.75 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fayha come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 16D 19L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 1.91 PPG from 47 outings (28W 6D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fayha's home form reads 5W 8D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 1.74 points per game from 23 outings (12W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.02 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 12W 16D 19L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 28W 6D 13L in their last 47 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 8 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
7
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 September 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 44%, Al-Ittihad FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Fayha) and 56% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 44%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 48% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.84 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.75 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 18% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 59%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 53%, Al-Ittihad FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.