Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 3 May 2022 at 17:10 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 5W 4D 1L at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.80 PPG clear of Al-Fayha in recent Pro League fixtures (2.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fayha lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 39% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 17% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.78 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.720 / defence 0.891 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.207 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.106. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Al-Fayha games / 23 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 24% | Draw 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 May 2022, 17:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 24% | Draw 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Fayha 0.78 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.720 / def 0.891 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.207 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:10 on Tuesday 3 May 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Fayha 1 - 0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 24% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.21x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
24%
4.13
30%
3.31
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.97
1.19
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 16.6 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.19 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 6W 9D 8L from 23 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 2L across 23 games — 2.13 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 5W 4D 1L from 10 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 5W 5D 0L across 10 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.04 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking output running into Al-Fayha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 6W 9D 8L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 14W 7D 2L in their last 23 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.90 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 20%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Al-Fayha and 50% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 70% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.78 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.19 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.72 / defence 0.89 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 24% | Draw 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fayha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 17%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Al-Fayha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.