Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Al-Hazm travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 0.90 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Fayha, 2 for Al-Hazm and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Hazm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al-Hazm 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 56% | Al-Hazm 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.77 xG and Al-Hazm 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.058 / defence 1.193 | Al-Hazm attack 1.031 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Data: 39 Al-Fayha games / 38 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 39% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hazm 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al-Hazm 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 39% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Fayha 1.77 / Al-Hazm 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.058 / def 1.193 | Al-Hazm attack 1.031 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Al-Hazm xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 22 April 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 39% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fayha 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
39%
2.55
25%
3.92
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.44
1.68
Al-Hazm xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
6%
16.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.68 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 11W 10D 18L from 39 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 16L across 39 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.10 PPG, Al-Hazm on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 7W 7D 6L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 4W 8D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.10 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 10D 18L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 12W 11D 16L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.40 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al-Fayha.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 55%, Al-Hazm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fayha) and 55% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Fayha's games and 60% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 55% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.