Al-Fayha 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 October 2026, 15:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Al-Fayha.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al-Ahli Jeddah have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 52% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 52% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.43 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.968 / defence 1.077 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.103 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.407. Data: 43 Al-Fayha games / 42 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 30% | Draw 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Oct 2026, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 30% | Draw 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Fayha 1.43 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.968 / def 1.077 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.103 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 15:05 on Monday 19 October 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Fayha 2 - 3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 30% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
30%
3.36
30%
3.32
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.10
1.67
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
6%
17.88
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.67 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 10W 12D 20L from 42 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 30W 6D 6L across 42 games — 2.29 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 7W 8D 6L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 13W 2D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.17 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 30W 6D 6L in their last 42 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 9 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 57%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Fayha) and 48% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 38% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 48% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al-Fayha 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fayha 2-3 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.43 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.67 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 30% | Draw 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 52%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.