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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fateh and NEOM share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh and NEOM finished level at 2-2 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.41 xG and NEOM 1.22 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against NEOM attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 41% | Draw 27% | NEOM 32%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 47%, NEOM 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

NEOM's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.17 PPG, NEOM 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights