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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Damac encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Damac travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fateh — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh at Al Fateh club stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Damac's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fateh 1.00 PPG, Damac 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Damac in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 1 for Damac and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Damac in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 68% and Damac 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 58% | Damac 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.02 xG and Damac 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.082 / defence 1.192 | Damac attack 0.624 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.389. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Al-Fateh games / 57 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 60% | Draw 23% | Damac 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Damac 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.

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